Chinese President’s Strategic Europe Visit: Goals and Impacts

President Xi Jinping’s strategic Xi Jinping Europe tour signifies a multifaceted endeavour aimed at navigating the complex geopolitics between China, Europe, and the broader international community. Amid growing tensions with Washington, this visit is seen as an attempt at damage control, striving to avert further deterioration of Beijing’s relationships with European nations.[1]Xi Jinping’s itinerary, which includes countries like France, Serbia, and Hungary, not only underscores China’s intention to foster a more multipolar world but also hints at exploiting divisions within Europe concerning the Ukraine crisis and relations with the US.[1][2]Furthermore, this trip, marking Xi Jinping’s first European tour in five years, coincides with significant anniversaries in diplomatic relations between China and key European nations, which indicates an effort to repair and reinforce Beijing’s bilateral ties amidst critical challenges.[3][5].

The visit harbours crucial economic and diplomatic ramifications, reflecting Beijing’s push to pivot its growth model towards high value-added manufacturing exports and lessen its reliance on the property sector, a move that intensifies economic competition.[1]Europe’s critical role as a market for China’s high-end goods is evident, amid Beijing’s intensified competition with European manufacturers and the continent’s scrutiny over economic dependencies on China, pushing for Made in Europe goods, adherence to EU standards, and fair competition.[1]Additionally, this engagement occurs in the shadow of significant concerns over China’s human rights practices, and its stances on national security and foreign policy – areas of growing apprehension for several European states, spotlighting differing models of governance.[4]Xi Jinping’s efforts aim not only at showcasing China’s economic prowess but also at mitigating the geopolitical frictions, particularly around Ukraine, thereby presenting a diplomatic challenge fraught with opportunities and risks for Sino-European relations.[1][6].

Objectives of the Visit

Strategic Diplomatic Engagements

1. France: Strengthening Bilateral Ties
   The visit to France is particularly symbolic, marking 60 years of diplomatic relations between China and France. Discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron are set to cover a broad range of topics including international crises, trade issues, and global challenges, further cementing France-China relations.[3][12][1][10][9][7].
2. Inclusion of European Commission in Discussions
   In a notable diplomatic move, Macron has invited Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, to join the discussions in Paris. This inclusion underscores the significance of the visit in the broader context of EU-China relations, highlighting a step towards European unity.[3][12][1][10].

Economic and Political Objectives

• Serbia and Hungary: Deepening Economic and Diplomatic Ties
  Xi’s visits to Serbia and Hungary are timed with historical and strategic significance. The 25th anniversary of NATO’s bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade is a pivotal moment for reaffirming Sino-Serbian relations. Additionally, discussions are expected to promote Chinese investments in sectors like electric vehicle manufacturing in Hungary and infrastructure projects like the Budapest-Belgrade rail link.[3][12][1][10][8].
• Advancing the Belt and Road Initiative
  The discussions in Hungary will also focus on the progress of the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the strategic Budapest-Belgrade rail link, which is a cornerstone project under this initiative.[12][1][10].

Addressing Global and Regional Issues

• Support for Russia and Economic Security with the EU
  During the discussions with Macron and Ursula von der Leyen, Xi is expected to articulate China’s stance on supporting Russia amidst ongoing global tensions. These discussions will also touch upon the EU’s economic security concerns, particularly in the context of technology exports that could potentially aid in conflict scenarios.[12][1][10].
• Navigating Geopolitical Challenges
  The visit is strategically poised to address and possibly leverage the ongoing geopolitical frictions within Europe concerning the Ukraine crisis and the broader transatlantic relations, with a keen eye on fostering European unity.[12][1][10].

Economic Implications and Strategic Autonomy

• Electric Vehicle Market and European Tariffs
  One of the critical economic agendas for Xi during this visit is to mitigate the risks of European tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. This move is crucial as it pertains to China’s broader strategy of advancing its high-end manufacturing capabilities and reducing dependency on traditional industrial sectors.[12].
• Promoting European Strategic Autonomy
  Xi’s engagements are also aimed at encouraging European strategic autonomy, a vision shared by Macron. This involves fostering a Europe that can independently navigate its economic and political choices amidst global power dynamics, reinforcing the concept of European unity.[3][12][1][10].

This section of the visit not only highlights the multifaceted objectives ranging from economic to political realms but also underscores the strategic manoeuvres by China to maintain and enhance its influence in Europe amidst evolving global scenarios.

Economic Implications for Europe

Expanding Chinese Influence in European Auto Industry

Hungarian media have reported that the Chinese automaker Great Wall Motors is considering building a new electric vehicle plant near Pecs, in the south of Hungary.[8]This move is part of a broader strategy by China to embed its automotive industry within the European market, as Hungary has emerged as the leading EU destination for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, thanks to its long-standing relationship with China.[8]The presence of major Chinese companies like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) and BYD, which have established factories in Hungary, underscores this trend. These factories are significant not only for job creation but also as a strategic manoeuvre to circumvent potential trade barriers, such as increased customs duties from Brussels.[8].

Trade Tensions and European Economic Sovereignty

The European Union has expressed concerns over Beijing’s trade practices, threatening to impose new tariffs, highlighting the importance of negotiating equitable trade agreements.[16]This has led to increased scrutiny of economic dependencies on China by European leaders, who are wary of deep economic integration with Beijing, highlighting the growing economic competition between the two powers.[16]The EU’s investigation into the influx of Chinese green technology, which allegedly harms European competitors due to artificially low costs supported by state subsidies, highlights these tensions.[17]Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has emphasised that the EU cannot absorb massive overproduction of Chinese industrial goods and will take measures to protect its market.[17].

Strategic Investments and Industrial Policies

China’s pursuit of industrial policies aimed at moving up the export value chain to establish itself as a high-end manufacturing powerhouse is evident, signalling its ambition for technological leadership.[1]This strategy aligns with the critical role European markets play for China’s high value-added goods, where Chinese companies fiercely compete with European counterparts, often buoyed by state subsidies, underscoring the intense economic competition.[1]However, Europe is reevaluating its economic over-dependence on China, spurred by global disruptions such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.[1]These structural tensions between Europe and China are anticipated to persist in the short term, complicating the economic landscape.[1].

Diplomatic Dynamics and Economic Discussions

The economic implications of Xi Jinping’s visit are not limited to trade alone but also involve diplomatic engagements that reflect on economic policies. For instance, during meetings with European leaders like Emmanuel Macron, discussions have not only focused on trade but also on broader issues like China’s role in potentially aiding Russia’s industrial base against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict.[5]These discussions have been described as defensive and rancorous, with significant trade deals left unagreed upon, hinting at the challenges in reaching new trade agreements.[5]Moreover, the EU’s ongoing investigation into subsidies for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers highlights the contentious nature of these trade issues.[6].

Cooperation and Investments

Despite the contentious backdrop, there have been positive developments such as cooperation agreements involving major French companies like Airbus and Suez, which indicate areas of mutual interest and potential collaboration in France.[11]Additionally, France’s open stance towards Chinese investments, as stated by Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, suggests a nuanced approach to economic relations, balancing concerns with opportunities for partnership in France.[17].

This intricate web of economic implications highlights the strategic depth of the Chinese president’s visit to Europe, reflecting a complex interplay of competition, cooperation, and strategic manoeuvring within the global economic arena.

Diplomatic Dynamics around the Ukraine Conflict

High-Level Diplomatic Engagements

1. French and Chinese Leaders Discuss UkraineDuring the visit, French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, focusing on the need for a peaceful resolution and respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, marking a significant Macron Xi meeting.[14].
2. Macron’s Appeal to XiMacron aimed to persuade Xi to reduce or end support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, particularly concerning the provision of key military materiel.[3].
3. European Commission’s InvolvementUrsula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, joined the discussions in Paris, highlighting the European Union’s concern over the conflict and its implications for European Union China relations.[3].

China’s Stance and International Reactions

• China’s Neutral PositionDespite the international pressure, China has maintained a neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict, advocating for peaceful resolution but avoiding direct criticism of Russia.[14].
• EU’s Call for Chinese InfluenceThe European Union has urged China to leverage its influence with Russia to aid in resolving the conflict, reflecting the EU’s reliance on diplomatic channels to mitigate the crisis and underscoring the importance of European Union China relations.[14].

Economic and Military Dimensions

• Allegations Against ChinaThere are allegations that China has been bolstering Russia’s capacity to produce weapons, which are crucial in the ongoing conflict against Ukraine. However, China denies selling arms directly to Russia, instead selling materials like machine tools and microelectronics, which are then used by Russia to manufacture military equipment, raising concerns about military purchases.[7].

Diplomatic Challenges and Opportunities

• Xi’s European Tour and U.S. InfluenceAnalysts suggest that Xi’s visit to Europe, particularly to countries like Serbia and Hungary, is part of a strategy to counter U.S. influence and potentially divide Western consensus on trade and the Ukraine war.[15].
• Hungary’s RoleHungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, known for his close ties with Russia and controversial policies within the EU, received praise from Xi. This interaction highlights the complex diplomatic relationships within the EU concerning the Ukraine conflict.[13].

Broader International Relations

• Global Calls for TruceXi and Macron advocated for a global truce during the upcoming 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, although scepticism remains about China’s commitment to enforce such a truce. This initiative, deeply rooted in France’s hope for peace, underscores the diplomatic efforts to leverage international events for global harmony.[15].
• Lack of Progress in TalksDespite discussions, there was no significant advancement in persuading Xi to use his influence over Russia to end the conflict, as evidenced during Xi’s meetings with European leaders.[15].

Strategic Autonomy and Security Concerns

• European Strategic AutonomyFrance’s push for European strategic autonomy is viewed favourably by Beijing, indicating a mutual interest in maintaining a balanced geopolitical stance amidst global tensions. This alignment reflects France’s strategic vision for Europe’s role on the world stage.[11].
• Security and CooperationThe ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a pivotal issue in international relations, with continuous tensions and the looming threat of escalation affecting global security dynamics.[14].

Human Rights and Geopolitical Tensions

Addressing Human Rights Concerns

Human rights issues, particularly those related to Tibet and Xinjiang, are expected to be a focal point during discussions on the Chinese president’s visit.[12]These concerns underscore the broader geopolitical tensions and the EU’s commitment to human rights standards, highlighting the complex interplay between diplomatic relations and core values.

Pro-China Sentiments in Serbia and Hungary

Xi Jinping’s stops in Serbia and Hungary are strategic, as both nations are known for their pro-China stance. This visit is expected to strengthen ties without facing criticism from these countries, despite broader European concerns about human rights and trade policies.[8][16].

European Discontent and Strategic Divides

Recent developments have shown a souring of European views towards China, exacerbated by China’s deepening cooperation with Russia and controversial trade practices. This shift in public attitudes has led to a growing political taboo in Europe regarding engagement with China, focusing instead on mitigating Beijing’s influence.[16][5].

Allegations of Espionage

In a backdrop of heightened tensions, Germany and the UK have responded to alleged Chinese espionage activities by charging six individuals suspected of spying for China. This incident adds another layer of complexity to the diplomatic relations during Xi’s visit.[16].

Leveraging European Divisions

Beijing is poised to exploit the diverging interests within Europe, particularly between some European leaders and Washington. This strategy, through lateralization, aims to navigate through the existing divisions to reinforce China’s geopolitical influence in the region.[16].

Anti-NATO Sentiments and Anniversary

The visit to Serbia coincides with the 25th anniversary of NATO’s bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, a historical moment likely to imbue this leg of the trip with an anti-NATO sentiment, showcasing a critical stance against Western military alliances.[11].

Focus on Central and Eastern Europe

In Hungary, discussions will likely centre on deepening cooperation with Central and Eastern European countries, including the Western Balkans. This move aligns with China’s strategic interests in the region and its broader foreign policy objectives.[11].

Diplomacy and Peace Narratives

Throughout his European tour, Xi Jinping has emphasised China’s commitment to peace, dialogue, and diplomacy. This narrative contrasts sharply with criticisms of NATO’s policies, the selective use of international law by the US, and ongoing global conflicts.[18].

Conclusion

Through this detailed exploration of President Xi Jinping’s strategic visit to Europe, we’ve uncovered a complex web of diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical manoeuvres aimed at strengthening China’s position on the global stage while navigating the intricacies of its relations with European nations. From the economic implications of deepening ties in the automotive sector to the diplomatic dynamics around the Ukraine conflict, Xi’s visit underscores a deliberate push towards fostering a more multipolar world, exploiting divisions within Europe, and showcasing China’s commitment to becoming a high-value manufacturing hub. The significance of these engagements, set against the backdrop of commemorating diplomatic anniversaries and addressing critical global issues, highlights the multifaceted objectives China pursues in reinforcing its influence within Europe amidst evolving global scenarios.

The broader implications of these discussions and engagements cannot be overstated, as they bear on the future of Sino-European relations, the global economic landscape, and the geopolitical balance of power. This visit, characterised by strategic diplomatic engagements and economic overtures, not only seeks to mitigate rising tensions but also to explore avenues for cooperation and mutual growth amidst challenges. As Europe grapples with its stance on key global issues, including economic security and human rights, Xi Jinping’s European tour serves as a crucial juncture in assessing the future trajectory of international relations and the potential for achieving a harmonious balance in world affairs, necessitating further research and action to understand and address the unfolding implications. The dynamics of China-EU relations are at the heart of these discussions.

References

[1] – https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/05/xi-jinping-hopes-improve-eu-china-relations-and-drive-wedge-between-europe-and-us
[2] – https://www.npr.org/2024/05/06/1249296720/chinas-president-xi-jinping-begins-a-5-day-tour-in-europe
[3] – https://www.brookings.edu/articles/xis-visit-exposes-fault-lines-in-european-unity/
[4] – https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/xis-trip-europe-may-lay-bare-wests-divisions-over-china-strategy-2024-05-02/
[5] – https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2024/05/07/xi-jinpings-european-tour-00156696
[6] – https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/6/xjp-jinping-begins-first-european-tour-in-five-years-in-france
[7] – https://apnews.com/article/china-france-hungary-serbia-xi-jinping-trade-470fc6954586e250261781ed76165cf5
[8] – https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/05/08/xi-jinping-s-european-visit-takes-him-to-allies-hungary-and-serbia_6670753_4.html
[9] – https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/05/08/chinese-presidents-europe-visit/
[10] – https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/xi-jinpings-visit-to-europe-tests-transatlantic-eu-cohesion-on-china-policy/
[11] – https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Xi-sends-messages-on-trade-and-NATO-in-Europe-tour-full-of-symbolism
[12] – https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/06/xi-jinping-european-tour-where-is-china-president-going
[13] – https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3262059/hungary-rolls-out-red-carpet-chinese-president-xi-jinping-last-stop-european-trip
[14] – https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chinas-xi-jinping-hungary-discuss-ukraine-infrastructure-2024-05-09/
[15] – https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2024-05-09/chinese-president-xis-trip-to-europe-charm-offensive-or-canny-bid-to-divide-the-west
[16] – https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/03/china-xi-jinping-europe-trip-trade-france-serbia-hungary/
[17] – https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/05/08/eu-china-relations-the-economic-challenges-yet-to-be-resolved
[18] – https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/05/06/china-president-vists-france-serbia-and-hungary-what-is-at-stake

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